Cotton Association of India (CAI) in its December estimate report reduced the production estimate by 9.25 lakh bales from the previous estimate of 339.75 lakh bales. The industry body had initially estimated production of 344 lakh bales, which has been reduced twice already. The production estimate has been reduced by 13.5 lakh bales in total. Last year, the output was reduced to just 307.05 lakh bales in multiple tranches.
India’s cotton production estimate was recently reduced by 9.25 lakh bales of 170 kg each to 330.50 lakh bales for the current marketing year 2022-23 (October to September). Actual production may be lower than this estimate because of seasonal impact. Despite lower cotton production, prices are not getting support because of price disparity in the country.
The output is expected to decline by 2 lakh bales each in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka to 82.50 lakh bales, 13 lakh bales and 22 lakh bales, respectively, according to CAI. Except for Gujarat, where the output is likely to remain steady, most of the cotton producing states are expected to witness a decline in production.
The total cotton supply during October-December 2022 is estimated at 116.27 lakh bales, which consists of the arrivals of 80.13 lakh bales, imports of 4.25 lakh bales and the estimated opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales. The CAI has estimated cotton consumption for October-December 2022 at 65 lakh bales while the exports up to December 31, 2022, are estimated at 2 lakh bales.
India’s cotton story this season is not different from the last season. The production estimate was reduced gradually in the last season. Market experts believe that the actual production will be much lower than the recent estimate. Satish Sharma, a veteran trader from Bathinda of Punjab told Fashion2Fashion, “India’s cotton production will not be higher than 315 lakh bales. The trade bodies will further reduce their production estimate. North India’s production will be reduced to 42 lakh bales. CAI has estimated north India’s production at 42.50 lakh bales. Except Gujarat, all the major cotton producing states will report lower production.”
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)