Holiday retail sales in US to grow 6-8% over 2021: NRF

Holiday spending is expected to be healthy even with recent inflationary challenges, as the National Retail Federation (NRF) has forecast that holiday retail sales during November and December will grow between 6 and 8 per cent over 2021 to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion. Last year’s holiday sales grew 13.5 per cent over 2020 and totalled $889.3 billion, shattering previous records.

Holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 4.9 per cent over the past 10 years, with pandemic spending in recent years accounting for considerable gains.

Holiday spending is expected to be healthy even with recent inflationary challenges, as NRF has forecast that holiday retail sales during November and December will grow between 6 and 8 per cent over 2021 to between $942.6 and $960.4 billion. Last year’s holiday sales grew 13.5 per cent over 2020 and totalled $889.3 billion, shattering previous records.

NRF expects that online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, to increase between 10 per cent and 12 per cent to between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion. This figure is up from $238.9 billion last year, which saw extraordinary growth in digital channels as consumers turned to online shopping to meet their holiday needs during the pandemic. While e-commerce will remain important, households are also expected to shift back to in-store shopping and a more traditional holiday shopping experience.

“While consumers are feeling the pressure of inflation and higher prices, and while there is continued stratification with consumer spending and behaviour among households at different income levels, consumers remain resilient and continue to engage in commerce,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said. “In the face of these challenges, many households will supplement spending with savings and credit to provide a cushion and result in a positive holiday season.”

“This holiday season cycle is anything but typical,” NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “NRF’s holiday forecast takes a number of factors into consideration, but the overall outlook is generally positive as consumer fundamentals continue to support economic activity. Despite record levels of inflation, rising interest rates and low levels of confidence, consumers have been steadfast in their spending and remain in the driver’s seat.”

“The holiday shopping season kicked off earlier this year – a growing trend in recent years – as shoppers are concerned about inflation and availability of products,” Kleinhenz said. “Retailers are responding to that demand, as we saw several major scheduled buying events in October. While this may result in some sales being pulled forward, we expect to see continued deals and promotions throughout the remaining months.”

This year, given concerns around inflation, 46 per cent of holiday shoppers said they planned to browse or buy before November, according to NRF’s annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.

NRF expects retailers will hire between 450,000 and 600,000 seasonal workers. That compares with 669,800 seasonal hires in 2021.

NRF’s holiday forecast is in line with the organisation’s full year forecast for retail sales, which predicted retail sales will grow between 6 per cent and 8 per cent to more than $4.86 trillion in 2022.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KD)